Economic analysis of dairy cattle production system with emphasis on risk in livestock of Cities of Ardabil province

Abstract

Introduction: The most appropriate way to maximize profitability through breeding is
to use economic coefficients of traits along with genetic evaluation. The purpose of this
study was to estimate the economic coefficients of production, reproductive,
performance and risk traits in farms in Ardabil, Khalkhal, Nir and Germi counties based
on the collected data and market conditions in 2022, using a bio-economic model.
Materials & Methods: The economic coefficient of the traits was calculated using
MATLAB software with a unit change in the mean of the desired trait if the mean of
other traits remain constant. The studied traits included milk production, milk fat,
calving interval, production lifespan, daily weight gain before and after weaning, birth
weight, adult body weight and survival rate before and after weaning.
Results: The studied traits included milk production, milk fat, calving interval,
production lifespan, daily weight gain before and after weaning, birth weight, adult body
weight and survival rate before and after weaning. The economic coefficients for Ardabil
city was 15501.17, 556278, -78829.41, 18325.85, 607695.31, 1984509.5, 47849.36,
-34521.69, 676066.77, 3174287.11 Rials, respectively. Khalkhal city 12154.83,
555009.65, -156539.61, 17409.81, 1058103.07, 3480949.26, 83976.43, -43347.37,
3814230.34, 6371210.65 Rials, for Nir city 15281.13, 490212.7, -128232.97, 64858.19,
898225.59, 2932385.16, 70725.61, -49044.99, 2503282.56, 5036932.8 Rials and for
Germi city 27118.6, 448803.94, -130308.28, 15699.58, 908827.54, 2990291.35,
72192.17, -54554.8, 3024142.99, 5006904.32 Rials per cow per year were calculated.
in all production systems. The highest income was related to milk sales and the lowest
was related to elimination heifers. It was also found that the cost of nutrition has the
largest share of the total variable costs. Among non-nutritional costs, manpower costs
were the most important factor in increasing costs. The results of the sensitivity test
showed that economic coefficients are the most sensitive to changes in feed and live
weight prices and the least sensitive to fluctuations in milk and fat prices. The results
also showed that livestock diseases and lack of vaccines and drugs are the most
important risk factors in a livestock unit and problems with milk transportation and
changes in livestock insurance conditions are the least important risk factors, so the most
important risks. In livestock, there were some risks related to production and manpower.
Also, the most important risks threatening natural factors include heat and cold stress
and drought, respectively.